population dynamics

Calculation of epidemic arrival time distributions using branching processes

The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has led to sharp changes in our notions of “distance” and “closeness”—in terms of both trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. When novel pathogens …

Biodiversity

Theoretical Ecology, Biodiversity and trait-based modelling

Bioinvasion

Bioinvasion and global transportation networks

Marine Microbiome

Complex systems theory of dissolved organic matter

Movement Ecology

Linking magnetic and other orientation cues to global migration patterns

Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator–prey system

Predator–prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey. However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors. Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator–prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations.

New Publication in Nature: Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system.

Realization of the longest known predator-prey time series

Resource competition and species coexistence in a two-patch metaecosystem model

The metaecosystem framework has been proposed to conceptualize the interactive effects of dispersal and resource flows on the structure and functioning of communities in a heterogeneous environment. Here, we model a two-patch metaecosystem where two …

Long-term stability of marine dissolved organic carbon emerges from a neutral network of compounds and microbes

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is the main energy source for marine heterotrophic microorganisms, but a small fraction of DOC resists microbial degradation and accumulates in the ocean. The reason behind this recalcitrance is unknown. We test whether the long-term stability of DOC requires the existence of structurally refractory molecules, using a mechanistic model comprising a diverse network of microbe-substrate interactions...

Modeling community assembly on growing habitat islands: a case study on trees and their vascular epiphyte communities

The number of available sites for establishment is a key determinant of species richness on habitat islands. While most theoretical studies assume habitat size or capacity to be constant, many natural habitats are characterized by dynamic growth in …